Week 10

[ofred]

Last week:
6-5 large plays
6-2 small plays

Large:
Liberty/ Jacksonville State- under 63 Conference USA, the football conference that makes the MAC look good. Jacksonville State has been scoring quite a bit their last few games, but they have been playing absolute garbage defenses the whole time....Kennesaw, MTSU, NMSU, etc. Liberty will be the best D they have faced since Louisville in week 2. Both teams run the ball a ton, and Liberty seems to really take their time moving the ball down the field. JS QB Tyler Huff is questionable with a leg injury, but is expected to play. Liberty has also faced some awful Ds, and lost to Kennesaw State last week, so they might be motivated here. Both QBs known for their running, less for downfield passing.

 

[mak104]

Good angle. Public might bet it higher by gametime. BOL.

 

[bluefish33]

GL this week Fred, keep it rolling brother

 

[ofred]

Small:
WKU -13 (-130) 1H Kennesaw off a huge upset. Really bad teams off an upset, on the road vs. a quality opponent- usually start off terrible.

 

[ofred]

Small:
FAU +2.5 FAU doesn't exactly have a great QB in Cam Fancher, but USF's QB situation looks really bleak. Plus their run game is mediocre. USF has only been able to score vs. very poor defenses. FAU at home and with a win stays in contention for a bowl spot.

 

[doogieboy]

“lost to Kennesaw State last week, so they might be motivated here. “
Hopefully the Lib D is motivated and the O is butt hurt and come out flat

 

[ofred]

Still don't get the move to the OVER on the Liberty game.

 

[Aristo]

Thx for the early picks Fred! Keep it rollin’!

 

[PatsFanatic]

Stay hot Fred!

 

[JBS39]

Nice night last night Fred!

 

[ofred]

Early Games Large:

UTSA +7.5 Horrific loss for UTSA last week, letting Tulsa come back from a big deficit. I think they'll respond well. Their defense is better than that. Their offense is pretty dynamic and balanced. They have a lot to prove in front of the home crowd. Memphis has struggled to put teams away, and that is true vs. weak competition- which is most of their schedule. Might be rainy and windy.

Ohio State -3 Kind of counting on Ohio State opening up the playbook this game. This is a veteran offense with a senior QB who has played well. They need to be less predictable. PSU has definitely looked weaker this season, and is not winning games without a fight vs. even weaker teams. PSU also missing 2 key defenders. They don't seem to have much big play threat either. Allar might be out, but his backup is decent.

Duke +20.5 Week after week, Duke gets no respect. They really aren't bad in any one area, and their defense has been surprisingly good. Miami loses focus sometimes, and they haven't covered a spread like this since USF and Ball State- two creampuffs. Possible Miami getting too much team credit ATS because of the great season of Cam Ward and his Heisman chances.

Small:

Ole Miss -7 (-114) Interesting how Arkansas is getting like 90% of the money and the line slightly going the other way. Arkansas QB Taylen Green can be really good, but is inconsistent as a passer and turnover prone. Ole Miss might get back WR Harris this week, but really they are a consistently good offense even without him.

Purdue -1 Purdue has shown some life their last 2 games. They played decent run defense vs. Oregon, and nearly upset Illinois. But yes, their D is bad. Northwestern offense also bad- so maybe they can't take advantage of the Purdue D. The Purdue offense might be the best unit on the field and they are at home.

Air Force +22 Army has been so good this season, including ATS. Yet this Air Force team has gotten some experience under their belt. These games are historically close, and both teams eat a lot of clock on offense, so maybe a couple of scores by AF keeps them within the spread.

 

[mak104]

I'm on the other side in Ark. I wish I'd have taken Duke early at 21. BOL Fred.

 

[ofred]

Large:
Clemson -10 (-115) Clemson has played the weaker schedule between these two, but they did all that they could do- crush their opponents. Louisville playing their 7th consecutive week, on the road vs. a really physical team. I also like Klubnik here vs. Shough, though both are having great seasons. Shough more turnover prone, more likely to get sacked. Clemson off a bye, with the better defense.

Georgia Southern +6 This is a forget their last games kind of play. S. Alabama off an easy win vs. ULM, while Georgia Southern got hammered by ODU. Yet Georgia Southern has played well this season, beating JMU and Marshall. S. Ala. looks like an offense that only beats up on weak Ds. Their OL is so-so. QB Gio Lopez looks under pressure too often. Georgia Southern can win this game with a receiver corp that might be the best in the Sun Belt.

Washington +3 (-130) Not much difference between these two with similar records. But UW has 2 losses that should have been wins- WSU and Rutgers. Turnovers and penalties. USC's only 2 recent wins, at home, vs. Rutgers and Wisconsin. UW needs a win badly, at home in the cool, wet NW, with a pretty well balanced team. Washington is better than their record and will be very "up" for this game.

Minnesota -2.5 This line moved quite a bit early in the week. Maybe Luke Altmeyer returns to his old self, making poor decisions and turning the ball over(starting to see signs of that). Illinois has some key injuries, while Minnesota seems to have found a QB in Max Brosmer. They are pretty solid team that has been without a quality QB for a few years. Brosmer has looked exceptionally good, the running game too.

Houston +12.5 Still can't figure out why Willie Fritz and the Houston coaching staff hasn't gotten more out of their QBs. Both D. Smith and Zeon Chriss were much better players last season, and have a lot of experience. Their OL is probably the main issue. But Houston is running the ball better, and their D has been their saving grace. Really like this K State team, but they aren't exceptionally talented in any one way. Houston at home, in a game that could keep them in bowl contention.

Indiana -8 Rourke is back with his injured thumb. But you have to love this entire Indiana team. The defense swarms as well as anyone. They are turnover producers too. MSU off their Michigan game. Not a fan of QB Aidan Chiles. His OL is porous, but he looks in panic mode too often. Chiles will likely turn the ball over at least twice here. Indiana, offensively, does a lot well. 5-6 guys are involved in the passing game as receivers, good running team too... Cignetti has his team playing consistently great each week.

 

[bluefish33]

Large:
Clemson -10 (-115) Clemson has played the weaker schedule between these two, but they did all that they could do- crush their opponents. Louisville playing their 7th consecutive week, on the road vs. a really physical team. I also like Klubnik here vs. Shough, though both are having great seasons. Shough more turnover prone, more likely to get sacked. Clemson off a bye, with the better defense.

Georgia Southern +6 This is a forget their last games kind of play. S. Alabama off an easy win vs. ULM, while Georgia Southern got hammered by ODU. Yet Georgia Southern has played well this season, beating JMU and Marshall. S. Ala. looks like an offense that only beats up on weak Ds. Their OL is so-so. QB Gio Lopez looks under pressure too often. Georgia Southern can win this game with a receiver corp that might be the best in the Sun Belt.

Washington +3 (-130) Not much difference between these two with similar records. But UW has 2 losses that should have been wins- WSU and Rutgers. Turnovers and penalties. USC's only 2 recent wins, at home, vs. Rutgers and Wisconsin. UW needs a win badly, at home in the cool, wet NW, with a pretty well balanced team. Washington is better than their record and will be very "up" for this game.

Minnesota -2.5 This line moved quite a bit early in the week. Maybe Luke Altmeyer returns to his old self, making poor decisions and turning the ball over(starting to see signs of that). Illinois has some key injuries, while Minnesota seems to have found a QB in Max Brosmer. They are pretty solid team that has been without a quality QB for a few years. Brosmer has looked exceptionally good, the running game too.

Houston +12.5 Still can't figure out why Willie Fritz and the Houston coaching staff hasn't gotten more out of their QBs. Both D. Smith and Zeon Chriss were much better players last season, and have a lot of experience. Their OL is probably the main issue. But Houston is running the ball better, and their D has been their saving grace. Really like this K State team, but they aren't exceptionally talented in any one way. Houston at home, in a game that could keep them in bowl contention.

Indiana -8 Rourke is back with his injured thumb. But you have to love this entire Indiana team. The defense swarms as well as anyone. They are turnover producers too. MSU off their Michigan game. Not a fan of QB Aidan Chiles. His OL is porous, but he looks in panic mode too often. Chiles will likely turn the ball over at least twice here. Indiana, offensively, does a lot well. 5-6 guys are involved in the passing game as receivers, good running team too... Cignetti has his team playing consistently great each week.

Thanks for the writeups Fred! GL keep it rolling

 

[indiana]

Fred..........here's to a solid and profitable weekend buddy.....
BOL with all your action,,,,,,indy

 

[LonghornMM]

Always like to look who you're on, Fred. Thanks for posting.

FYI, UTSA plays indoors at the Alamo Dome, so obviously weather is a non-factor.

 

[ofred]

Always like to look who you're on, Fred. Thanks for posting.

FYI, UTSA plays indoors at the Alamo Dome, so obviously weather is a non-factor.

Thanks. Need to research the venues better.

 

[ofred]

Small:
Wyoming +7.5 Wyoming playing a team very similar to Utah State last week, a game they should have won- a game I bet late and lost by 1/2 point. Wyoming starting to play better offensively, and UNM has a really poor D. Dampier a pretty good running QB, but is turnover prone. Think this game stays close, with Wyoming possibly winning.

Tennessee -17 (-117) One of those games where it seems books are begging for KY money. Kentucky has a QB mess, and can't count on their defense or run game, like in the past, to bail them out.

Oklahoma State +4 Gundy has read the riot act to his players for last game's lack of effort. Young players will replace some of the upperclassmen on defense. For god sakes, you're at home playing a team you should be able to beat. Oklahoma State has all the offensive pieces to score 30+

 

[ofred]

Finally, small:

Nebraska -6.5 (-116) UCLA off its best 2 games of the season, but before their Rutgers win, a game where Garbers looked awesome- Garbers had 4 TDs to 9 ints. And he was consistently under pressure. This Nebraska front on defense will likely be making him miserable. Home crowd will be excited for a win, and despite a close loss to Ohio State, the team feels pretty good about their season. UCLA on a 4-0 ATS run, but that ends here.

Texas Tech +14 Iowa State is still undefeated, and they probably deserve to be. But they just don't impress as much when you watch them. Solid team, average QB, but I think Tech gives them a good game. Really good offensive teams are hard to beat by 2 TDs.

 

[ofred]

Before game time, I thought about betting down the Duke play. It seemed to be one of those sides that the books wanted money on. Glad I didn't. Although it's only halftime, and plenty of time to lose. Still... impressed with Duke's play.